The Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: A 1960 Agreement Shaping India-Pakistan Relation in 2025

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, has long been a cornerstone of water-sharing between India and Pakistan. It allocates control over the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. Despite enduring multiple wars and periods of heightened tension, the treaty has been a rare example of sustained cooperation between the two nations. Recently, Indus Waters Treaty Suspension has announced by India.

About Indus River & Its Trajectory

The Indus is a 3,180 km (1,980 mi.) Asian and trans-Himalayan rivers in South and Central Asia. It rises in mountain springs northeast of Mount Kailash in the Western Tibet region of China and flows northwest through the disputed Kashmir region. The Indus River provides water resources for the Pakistani economy and their heavy industry through Punjab’s five rivers, including Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, which finally flow into the Indus. On 19th September 1960, in Karachi, a treaty was signed between then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani President Ayub Khan about the Indus River called the Indus Water Treaty.

Indus Waters Treaty: An Overview

Signed in 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, and brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty governs the sharing of the six rivers of the Indus Basin:

• India was granted unrestricted use of the Eastern Rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

• Pakistan was given rights over the Western Rivers – Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, although India can use them for limited agricultural use and non-consumptive purposes like hydroelectricity (without altering flow).

Background and Context of Indus Water Treaty

The Indus River System is one of the largest river systems in the world, with its rivers flowing through both India and Pakistan. When India and Pakistan were partitioned in 1947, the distribution of the rivers became a point of contention, as both countries depended heavily on the waters of the Indus Basin for agriculture and other economic activities.

Following the partition, disputes arose over how to allocate these vital water resources, with India controlling the upper reaches of the rivers and Pakistan controlling the lower. This led to tensions and fears of conflict over water use. The Indus Waters Treaty was signed to ensure cooperation and prevent disputes over water resources.

Key Provisions of the Treaty

The treaty has several crucial provisions that aim to balance the water usage between the two countries:

• Water Allocation: The treaty establishes a clear allocation of water, ensuring that both countries receive a fair share of the river water.

• India’s Use of Western Rivers: India can construct hydroelectric projects on the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), but it must ensure that these projects do not alter the flow of water significantly or affect Pakistan’s use of the rivers. India is required to inform Pakistan of any planned projects and is bound by specific design and operational guidelines to prevent adverse effects on Pakistan.

• Dispute Resolution: The treaty provides mechanisms for the peaceful resolution of disputes that may arise between India and Pakistan regarding the implementation of the treaty’s provisions. A Permanent Indus Commission was created to facilitate dialogue, provide a platform for grievances, and monitor the treaty’s implementation. In case of unresolved disputes, the matter can be taken to a neutral expert or international court for arbitration.

• No Interruption to Flow: Both countries are prohibited from taking actions that would disrupt the natural flow of the rivers, ensuring that the water resources are shared equitably without causing harm to either side.

• World Bank’s Role: The World Bank’s role as a mediator and guarantor has been vital in ensuring that both countries comply with the treaty’s provisions. The Bank provides financial and technical support for projects and helps resolve any disputes through its good offices.

Challenges:

The IWT has generally ensured peaceful cooperation over shared water resources, though ongoing challenges require continued dialogue.

• Hydroelectric Projects: India’s dams on Western rivers raise concerns in Pakistan over water flow.
• Climate Change and Water Scarcity: Changing weather patterns and rising demand may strain the treaty.
• Political Tensions: Geopolitical issues sometimes overshadow the treaty’s provisions.
• Population Growth: Increasing water demand may put further pressure on the treaty.

2025 Kashmir Crisis: Indus Waters Treaty Suspension

However, recent developments have brought the treaty under unprecedented strain. Following a devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, India has suspended the IWT, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism. In response to the Indus Waters Treaty Suspension, Pakistan has warned that any interference with its water rights would be considered an act of war.​

India’s Strategic Intent:

1. Diplomatic Leverage: India is using water – Pakistan’s most vital resource – as a pressure tool.

2. Security Doctrine Shift: India’s move reflects a shift from passive deterrence to active pressure in retaliation for cross-border terrorism.

3. Testing International Waters: By challenging a World Bank-brokered treaty, India signals that bilateral agreements may be conditional on national security.

Geopolitical Implications of Suspension of Indus Treaty

Regional Security Risks

• Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers; any significant escalation, especially over resources like water, could spiral out of control.

• Pakistan has declared any Indian interference in river flows as a casus belli (an act of war).

Economic Fallout for Pakistan

• About 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural output depends on the Indus basin.

• Any disruption in water flow could trigger food insecurity, rural displacement, and internal political chaos.

 Global Reactions

• The UN and World Bank have urged both sides to honour international agreements and return to dialogue.

• Major world powers (including the US and China) are monitoring developments due to the risk of regional instability.

 Pakistan’s Strategic Response: Refuting the Simla Agreement

The Simla Agreement (1972) was a post-war peace accord between Indira Gandhi and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto that emphasised resolving issues bilaterally. The Prime Minister’s Office of Pakistan has notified in this regard that–

“Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force,”

Pakistan’s Potential Strategy:

1. Internationalising Kashmir Again: By framing the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as an international breach, Pakistan seeks to undermine the bilateral-only clause of Simla.

2. UN and ICJ Appeals: Pakistan may escalate the matter to international courts and the United Nations, where it can seek sympathy as a “victim of water aggression.”

3. Humanitarian Diplomacy: Portraying the treaty suspension as a humanitarian crisis threatening millions could gain traction in Western media and the Islamic world.

4. Reviving the “Kashmir Issue”: Pakistan might argue that bilateral agreements (like Simla) are void if India unilaterally breaks another (like IWT), thereby demanding third-party mediation.

​Pakistan’s Response to this Geo-Political Issue

In response to India’s construction of dams and hydroelectric projects on the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), Pakistan has taken several actions under the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to safeguard its water rights and address perceived violations. These actions, often described as countermeasures, include both diplomatic and technical responses:

1. Diplomatic Protests:

• Pakistan has consistently raised concerns over India’s hydroelectric projects, particularly the Baglihar Dam (Jhelum River) and the Kishanganga Dam (Jhelum River), alleging that they violate the treaty’s provisions by altering the flow of water in a way that would affect Pakistan’s water supply.

• Pakistan has lodged formal complaints with the Permanent Indus Commission, seeking to resolve these issues diplomatically.

2. Seeking International Arbitration:

• Pakistan has frequently appealed to the World Bank to resolve disputes, especially over India’s hydropower projects on the Western rivers. In some cases, Pakistan has requested the intervention of neutral experts or the Court of Arbitration (as per the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism) to adjudicate on the matter.

3. Raising Concerns at International Forums:

• Pakistan has taken the issue to international platforms, such as the United Nations, to highlight its concerns about India’s projects and their potential to disrupt the flow of water.

4. Building Infrastructure on Shared Rivers:

• To counter India’s hydroelectric projects, Pakistan has focused on building its own infrastructure on the Indus River System to maximise the use of available water, including constructing dams and barrages. One example is the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, which is being constructed to store water and generate hydroelectric power.

5. Revisiting Treaty Provisions:

• Pakistan has occasionally argued that the treaty’s provisions need to be revisited to account for newer concerns, such as changes in climate patterns, population growth, and the growing water scarcity in the region. This includes pressing for stricter monitoring of India’s projects.

6. Military Posturing:

• In more politically charged periods, especially during times of military tension between India and Pakistan, Pakistan has hinted at the use of water as a strategic resource. Although no formal military action has been taken, the potential for water to become a tool in broader geopolitical conflicts has been raised.

7. Encouraging Regional Cooperation:

• Despite tensions, Pakistan has at times advocated for greater cooperation with India and other neighbouring countries to ensure sustainable water management in the region, recognising the interconnected nature of the Indus River System.

Conclusion:

The Indus Waters Treaty Suspension marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations. While intended as a diplomatic tool, it carries the risk of triggering a broader conflict, especially given the critical importance of water resources to Pakistan. The situation underscores the need for renewed dialogue and confidence-building measures to prevent further deterioration of bilateral ties.​w